How are UFC Odds Calculated?

One of the fastest growing sports for people to watch and wager on is the UFC. There are many factors that determine UFC odds, MMA odds, or fighting odds in general. The factors that carry the most weight are the experience of the fighters involved, the fighting style of each fighter, and the overall health and physical characteristics of each fighter.

Handicapping UFC Matches
The experience of each fighter is key in determining what the fighting odds should be. UFC odds and MMA odds will move heavily to one side or the other depending on the fighter’s record versus previous quality opponents. An experienced fighter (with over 10 fights) will almost always be favored over a new fighter with only 2 or 3 fights. Some exceptions to this rule do occur, usually in the heavyweight division, where raw strength and power play a bigger role like in the case of Brock Lesnar. In addition, oddsmakers may also consider each fighter’s background before they took up UFC fighting, especially if they are both rookie fighters.

UFC odds and MMA odds also take into account each fighter’s style. Fighters who employ a boxing style or karate style may face significant problems if they “go to the ground” versus a fighter who employs wrestler or submission tactics. Wrestlers may lack the quickness and defense needed to avoid quick strikes to the face. The strengths and weaknesses of each fighter’s style are compared and weighed accordingly to factor into the fighting odds.

The health and physical characteristics of each fighter are also very important to handicappers. Fighters are scrutinized for nagging injuries and their ability to take a punch. Many fighters never regain their ability to absorb damage after previous matches where they were severely hurt. Fighters, who earlier in their career were able to absorb large amounts of damage from opponents, may develop what is known as a “glass jaw”. These fighters can then be frequently knocked out by a single punch or kick. Some fighters may have a longer “reach”, making them to able to land punches to their opponent at a distance, but may have difficulty in close combat. Older fighters may perform well only if they are in peak condition and use their experience to their advantage. Finally, A fighter’s height will also determine how much muscle or bulk he will be allowed to carry in order to compete in his weight division.